Banking and Financial Crises in United States History: What Guidance Does History Offer?

Banking and Financial Crises in United States History: What Guidance Can History Offer Policymakers? This paper assesses the validity of comparisons of the current financial crisis (2007-2009) with previous episodes of crisis during the history of the United States. We highlight aspects of two particular National Banking Era crises (the Panic of 1873 and the Panic of 1907) that are relevant for comparison with the Panic of 2008. In 1873, overinvestment in railroad debt and the default of railroad companies on that debt led to the failure of numerous brokerage houses, an antecedent to the modern investment bank, most of which were located in New York City. For the Panic of 1907, panic-related deposit withdrawals centered on the less regulated trust companies, which were less directly linked to the existing lender of last resort, similar to investment banks in 2008. The popular press has made numerous references to the banking crises (there were three main ones) of the Great Depression as relevant comparisons to the present crisis. This paper argues that such an analogy is inaccurate in general. The paper will examine data from a variety of sources to draw clear analogies between the national banking era panics and the current panic. For example, banking data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, New York State Superintended of Banking, and the Federal Reserve System (where available) will help evaluate the general condition of banking organizations during these crises. Further, the paper will illustrate the sharp contractions in financial markets using estimates of stock market indices as well as observations for key bond prices. In addition, estimates for industrial production (Davis (2004) Journal of Economic History) illustrate how the financial market turbulence was associated with real economic distress. The methodological approach in this paper will employ historical analysis, summary data analysis, as well as graphical analysis to emphasize the common elements between the pre-Federal Reserve System crises and the present crisis in 2007-2009. We expect to finding that the current crisis is more akin to the banking panics of the National Banking Era, in which financial market participants in the money center experienced the brunt of the crisis. This finding will conflict with analogies between the current financial crisis and the financial distress of the Great Depression.