68th International Atlantic Economic Conference

October 08 - 11, 2009 | Boston, USA

Modelling Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility in Energy Products Prices

Saturday, October 10, 2009: 8:30 AM
Maria del Carmen Garcia Centeno, Ph.D. , Applied Mathematics and Statistic, University CEU San Pablo, Madrid, Spain
José-María Montero Lorenzo, Ph.D. , Statistics, University of Castile-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
This article has a double objective: on the one hand, to study the main stylised facts (especially the asymmetric answer of the volatility) of the different types of energy products. And, the other hand, to analyse the behaviour of these types of series. Two different models are used to estimate volatility in the price of energy products: the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model and the stochastic volatility model. As an asymmetric answer in volatility is detected, a new strategy is presented to model it. The database includes the daily returns of average price of Crude Oil Brent, Natural Gas, Propane, Butane and Gasoline.