22.11.2007.


(1) Title:                       OUTPUT, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT DURING TRANSITION

(2) Objectives:
Looking back at the experience of transition the author argues that the transformation of labour economics was a major area of transition. Therefore the article focus attention on the topic of the relationship between output, employment and unemployment. Okun’s relationship is taken as the starting point for discussion. Arthur M. Okun established the relationship between employment and real output, and between a change in the unemployment rate and the growth rate gap (e.g. the difference between actual and potential growth rates). The article considers the Okun relationship for a middle-income transition country in abnormal economic conditions. Slovenia in the 1980-2006 period is used as a case for consideration. This was a time of transition, the collapse of markets and developmental re-adjustments. An empirical estimation of the Okun relationship sheds some light on these issues.
(3) Data/Methods: Empirical analysis will be done on Slovenian data for period 1986-2005.
(4) Expected results: The analysis should give more insights about the question how the employment and unemployment responded of serious asymmetric shocks in output in Slovenian economy during the transition.
(5) Original Okun’s thesis was put forward for a developed country in normal economic conditions. By applying the thesis to middle developed country in transition time it is expected that Okun’s relations will reveal some non-linear characteristics.

 
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(1) Conference location: 65^th IAES conference in Warsaw, Poland, 9-13 April 2007.
(2) Name: SENJUR, Marjan
(3) Full Professor of Economics; Ph.D. in economics
(4) Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
(5) Mailing address: Kardeljeva ploscad 17, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
(6) Phone: +386-1 5892 578; Fax: +386 1 5892 698; e-mail: marjan.senjur@ef.uni-lj.si
(7) Category number of topic: O57
(6) Type of paper: primarily a macro focus.