Miguel Lebre de Freitas, Ph.D., Universidade de Aveiro & NIPE, DEGEI, Campus de Santiago, Aveiro, 3810-193, Portugal
This paper provides an empirical assessment of the “sophistication” of the Portuguese export basket in 2005 and evaluates the implication of the current specialization pattern for the process of structural transformation.
Using trade data at the product (NC4) level for 96 countries in 2005, we first compute a measure of sophistication for each product (PRODY), as a weighted average of the per capita incomes of countries that export it. Following Hausmann and Klinger (2006), we then use the structure of international trade in 2005 to estimate a measure of “revealed similarity” between each pair of products, in terms of the capabilities they require. This measure is computed using a probit model. In particular, we estimate the increment in the probability of a country having comparative advantage in one product given that the same country has comparative advantage in another product. Contrary to Hausmann and Klinger (2006), our measure of “proximity” is subject to a statistical scrutiny. We show that a large number of estimated proximities are not significant. For each product, we then explore some measures assessing how distant it is from products with higher income content. We investigate the extent to which upscale products in which a country didn’t develop RCA are “surrounded” by products in which the country already has developed RCA. These measures are then aggregated at the country level to assess opportunities in the process of structural transformation.