Uncertainty, Alienation, Polarization, and Voter Turnout

I present a spatial model analyzing the effect on candidates' policy choices when there is a positive relationship between extremism in policy choice and certainty in policy choice among the electorate. Formal models of elections typically assume that voters are sure of their ideal points on the policy spectrum. I argue that candidate divergence may result from uncertainty on the part of voters with respect to their ideal policy choices, a positive correlation between extreme preferences and certainty and the possibility of abstention due to alienation. By incorporating abstentions and the concepts of alienation and tolerance, I derive nonconvergence in candidate policy platforms without appealing to countervailing forces such as candidate preferences.