71st International Atlantic Economic Conference

March 16 - 19, 2011 | Athens, Greece

On Stabilization Policy in Sunspot-driven Oligopolistic Economies

Saturday, 19 March 2011: 17:00
Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, Ph.D. , Economics and Management, BETA, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
Frédéric Dufourt, Ph.D. , Economics and Management, BETA, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France

Economies with strategic competitive environments are prone to

inefficient sunspot-driven fluctuations triggered by autonomous changes

in firms equilibrium conjectures. We show that a well designed taxation-

subsidization scheme can eliminate these fluctuations by coordinating

firms conjectures on an efficient equilibrium. The particular taxation scheme

we propose has the feature of distorting payoff functions,

making unsustainable all other equilibrium configurations under lais-

sez faire while leaving unaffected the efficient equilibrium. Hence, it

acts as a pure selection mechanism. In contrast to most sunspot-driven

models in the literature, implementing this taxation scheme thus leads

to significant welfare gains equivalent, in our benchmark economy, to a

2 percent permanent increase in aggregate consumption. We decom-

pose these gains into two components: a "pure stabilization effect"

and an "efficient stabilization effect". We show that, from a quantita-

tive point of view, most of the welfare gains result from the efficient

stabilization effect. This effect, while potentially important, is typi-

cally ignored in the traditional computations of the welfare costs of

aggregate fluctuations (e.g., Lucas, 2003).