Volatility in the growth & decline of population across subnational jurisdictions: Canada

The overall appearance of population growth in Canada masks a serious underlying disparity in the distribution of population growth across subnational jurisdictions.  On the one hand, urban areas like York and Calgary are flourishing and experiencing high population growth.  On the other, certain rural jurisdictions in Newfoundland and Labrador and the island of Cape Breton in Nova Scotia are contracting.  Due to the magnitude of these extremes and the accompanying socio-economic impact, this heterogeneous subnational distribution of population growth across Canada warrants careful investigation.  Regional, provincial and federal planners and economists need to understand the underlying dynamics of the issue to determine how the situation is likely to unfold over the next generation and beyond.  Once understood, appropriate measures can then be undertaken to minimize the fallout of both rapid increases and decreases in population.

To fuel the discussion, this study focuses on the uneveness in the distribution of population growth in Canada by highlighting selected areas of high growth and low growth and comparing both non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas.  The intent of the study is to draw attention to the magnitude of the problem, stimulate further discussion by identifying key areas of research and recommend policies for action.