The National Bureau of Economic Research designated the United States to be in recession from December 2007 through June of 2009. During this time, U.S. unemployment rates reached their highest levels in 25 years. At the same time, the stock market dipped to lows that had not been seen in the decade. During this time when consumers were spending less: The data collected in 2009 show that for the first time since 1984 (the first year for which annual data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey have been published in a consistent format), the overall average annual expenditure declined—by 3 percent from 2008. This presentation will address what happened to charitable giving when income and other factors are controlled for. It also addresses whether these effects are consistent across all types of charitable giving (i.e., giving to educational institution; religious organization; or charitable/other organization).
DATA/METHODS
The research presented uses data from the Interview component of the Consumer Expenditure Survey to look at how the recession affected both choice to contribute and level of contributions of consumers. The data used allow comparisons from a time period prior to the recession (April 2006 to June 2007) to the time period during the recession (April 2008 to June 2009).
Regression analyses are used to predict both probability and amounts of giving before and during the recession.
RESULTS/EXPECTED RESULTS
Interestingly, the preliminary analysis shows little recessionary effect on probability of charitable giving. That is, in the probit regressions, while binary coefficients indicating recession are all negative, none is statistically significant. However, according to other regression results, the level of giving appears to drop for all types of giving, with all recession-indicator parameter estimates being negative, and some being statistically significant. As the models are refined, confirmation of these findings and measures of magnitude will be of interest.