73rd International Atlantic Economic Conference

March 28 - 31, 2012 | Istanbul, Turkey

Actually this time is different

Thursday, 29 March 2012: 9:10 AM
Renee Fry, Ph.D , CAMA, RSE, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Episodes of extraordinary turbulence in global financial markets are examined during eight crises ranging from Asia in 1997-98 to the recent great recession of 2008-10. The analysis focuses on changes in the dependence structures of equity markets through correlation and coskewness to answer the question of whether the great recession is different to other crises in terms of shock transmission through contagion. The results show that ‘this time is different’ and that the great recession is truly a global financial crisis. Other US sourced crises do not affect other markets through contagion, and emerging market crises transmit unexpectedly.