74th International Atlantic Economic Conference

October 04 - 07, 2012 | Montréal, Canada

Patterns of future-orientation in east-Asian and Pacific countries: An indicator analysis

Sunday, October 7, 2012: 11:55 AM
Horst Hanusch, Professor , Economics, University of Augsburg, Augsburg 86135, Germany
Yasushi Hara, M.B.A. , Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi City, Tokyo 186-0002, Japan
Asia is the main territory of economic growth in the global economy of today. But, there exists only a small amount of research to find out why development has preceded in certain countries and remained low in others. This paper’s main goals are (a) to focus on the diversity of development in the emerging markets of East-Asia and the Pacific countries, (b) to investigate whether there exist patterns of similarities or dissimilarities, (c) to show how these patterns look like and (d) to combine the pattern analysis with a performance and ranking study.
To meet these goals we employ Comprehensive Neo-Schumpeterian Economics (CNSE) as an analytical framework. This approach is based (a) on the principle of innovation as a competitive driving force and as the engine of development; (b) the notion of future-orientation penetrating all spheres of socio-economic life in developed as well as in developing countries.
Future-orientation gets its relevance and can be observed in three institutional domains of economic and social conduct, namely industry (real sector), finance and the public (social) sector. In such a three-pillar-context a fundamental cause- and effect chain of innovation processes takes place, stimulating growth
and development within each realm (evolution) as well as between these interdependent pillars (co-evolution).
Thus, CNSE is able to provide the conceptual framework for studying and picturing the economic catch-up and development processes as well as their co-evolutionary features for countries such as Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hongkong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. For these 16 countries (and territories) the developmental situation and its specifics will be figured out by means of quantitative research, using an indicator-based approach.
The future-orientation will be described and characterized in total by more than sixty indicators, focusing on the (private) real sector, the public and the financial sector. The indicators reflect many different activities in the various countries related to innovation and future-orientation. In dependence of data availability, the indicator sets comprise different years and time periods and also allow a dynamic analysis.
In a first step the study aims to detect and to analyze cross-national similarities and dissimilarities in the structure and composition of the Asian and Pacific economies with respect to future-orientation and innovativeness. To achieve that objective a cluster-analysis is applied.
In a second step, a performance analysis is employed, within the pillar clusters as well as in total referring to the overall pillar situation of the countries, to give an idea of their pillars’ success.
Next, the cluster composition is sorted by the average growth rates of the economies as a proxy-variable of macro-economic success. This allows a first correlation of pillar composition and growth performance.
In a final step pattern dynamics are investigated using data for different years and time periods.
The indicators included in our study derive from a variety of international data sources like the World Bank, IMF, CEIC or from surveys conducted by institutions like the World Economic Forum.