Saturday, October 6, 2012: 5:10 PM
The purpose of the paper is construction of a small macroeconometric model describing relations between main economic processes in China in the years 1980-2010. Significant attention is put to the role of savings and investment in the economic growth. The following economic categories: GDP growth, FDI, Exports of goods and services, Market capitalization and Real interest rate are considered. Structural econometric model as well as Vector Error Correction model are estimated. The obtained models are compared from the economic, statistical and predictive point of view. It is expected to specify the difference in parameters estimates before and during the last economic crisis.
Keywords: China economy, econometric macromodel, economic forecasts, economic crisis.