Count data analysis of coastal recreation in the gulf coast of Alabama and Mississippi

This paper estimates recreational site demand to the Alabama & Mississippi Gulf Coast Region (GCR) for multiple attributes combining both revealed and stated preference data using travel cost analysis.  This research is important for understanding the resiliency of areas that are frequented by tourist and experience frequent negatively impacting market shocks (ie: Deep Water Horizon oil spill, hurricanes, recessions, etc.).  Many GCR communities are heavily dependent on tourism, therefore this research is especially important to policy makers and local stakeholders dependent on the health and vitality of the coast.  The data for the study comes from 2933 household survey respondents, of which some had and some had not visited the study area.  Negative binomial and zero inflated binomial modeling are used to estimate both the visitation rate and recreational values of GCR attributes (ie: beach, boating, ecotourism, casinos, lodging, etc.).  Moreover, these models are used because of data truncation resulting from the non-negative and integer nature of trip counts and the over dispersion of zeros in the data.  The value of a single GCR visit is estimated at $137.86, which extrapolates to $627.2 million in GCR recreational values per year.  Contingent behavior modeling was used to estimate the value of potential increases in GCR beach quality.  Marginal effects were assessed to show that travelers to the GCR were willing to pay $2.70 for a 1% increase in beach nourishment.  The study reveals that demographic variables had a greater impact on demand than perceived environmental safety.  This could be a result of those that visited the GCR have more experience with the area and have a better understanding of the environmental conditions of the area.