Modeling the rise and fall of world empires: Application to the 21st century?

The purpose of this study is to analyze the rise and fall of major world empires throughout history and develop a model to help explain the major factors that led to their rise and fall.  This topic is important because there has been much discussion in the academic literature and the world press about the economic growth of developing nations and the future of the power of nations across the globe. The study offers an analysis and synthesis of many extensive sources taken from a variety of academic disciplines on the rise and fall of major empires.  However, previous studies did not create the framework for developing a theory of empires that could be used to predict changes in the relative economic power in the World Order. The methodology used here is multidisciplinary and inductive. It uses a combination of case study analyses and then generalizes from these to a more global explanatory model. The paper focuses on 10 case studies of major empires that have risen and fallen over the past 5000 years of world history, including such empires as Egypt, Rome, Britain and Russia. Eight major categories of the factors are developed and compared across the empires in order to create a generalized explanatory model. The model is then applied to three nations/regions of the contemporary world (United States, China and the European Union) to predict their future rise and fall.  The paper should stimulate much interest and discussion of conference participants about the multidisciplinary approach taken and the projections that the model puts forth.