Eurasia and global stability

Despite the relatively low attention and coverage of the Ukraine crisis compared to those in the Middle East, the prospects for a severe confrontation in the next few decades emerging from this dispute is real.  The Ukraine crisis opens an opportunity for competition over the future control of Eurasia, that in the past has led to Global wars.  The US and EU continue to oppose Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the ongoing pressure on Ukraine. The West levied economic sanctions on Russian that produced the deepest plunge in U.S.-EU-Russian relations since the Cold War. Facing Western opposition, Russia now bids to take its business East.  In response Russia signed a 30-year gas agreement with China that gives Russia a long term economic boost. Given the relative size of trade flows this adjustment is insufficient to compensate for losses from the EU and the US. However, the emerging China-Russia economic coalition creates a link between very large, militarily powerful, highly populated, less developed economies whose leaders are dissatisfied with current international norms.  Our forecasts show that the output, market power of China and Russia now matches that of the US. Moreover, by midcentury the overall output of the developing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Korea (BRICK) nations is expected to surpass that of the G7.  Such shifts among economically powerful entities pursuing different policy goals sets the preconditions for conflict anticipated by power transition. Our paper analyzes the implications of the ongoing changes in relations between Russia, China and the West along economic, demographic and political  dimensions. We empirically explore how the Ukraine confrontation affects political alliances and what effects it may have on short-term and long-term power shifts that in turn reflect on relations among these great powers. Based on  the likely economic shifts we assess what is likely to happen in the near and more extended future if Russia continues to lean more toward the East and withdraw from reliance on its current European trade partners.