Air pollution clean-up in China: Predicting a turning point

China’s economic rise, which has been quick and spectacular, has come at the expense of its environment and public health.  Rapid urbanization and industrialization have caused a series of environmental problems including arable land loss, urban congestion, flooding, health hazards due to toxic materials, water and air pollution, biodiversity loss, and the emission of CO2 in the atmosphere, a major contributor to global warming.  One of the most debatable questions among developmental economists and sinologists today is the question that deals with the time it will take China to reduce its current ambient air pollution levels to the levels acceptable by the World Health Organization.  One proposal is that the environmental problems are not stand alone issues, but rather a natural result of fast economic growth, relatively low standard of living, and high population density in urban manufacturing centers. The Environmental Kuznets Curve, in fact, echoes this proposal in suggesting that an increase in standard of living would necessarily improve the environmental situation. Some studies support this hypothesis stating that all that is necessary for environmental improvement in China is an increase in per capita income, so the turning point will “appear” once a country reaches a certain threshold of per capita income.  The objective of this study is to estimate the level of income that could become the “turning point” in China’s environmental situation.  The authors compare and contrast China’s current environmental struggle to clean up with the one that took place in the USA in the second half of the 20^th century.  Using multiple regression analysis, we investigate the role of economic forces (the role of urban population pressures, manufacturing growth, technological advance, and rise in consumption), political decisions and public concerns in cleaning up in both countries.  In addition, we estimate the time required for Chinese major urban centers to reach the level of air pollution acceptable by the WHO.  Some policy implications are drawn.