Global financial and structural implications of the Ukraine and China sea crises

We explore the global implications of the Ukraine/China Sea confrontations. We base our work on formal implications of the Power Transition theory that has a long established record of effective assessment of crisis over the historical span of 1815-1995. Our empirical analysis indicates that EU economic sanctions on Russia will not alter Russia’s actions in Ukraine.  Domestic rather than foreign pressures based on non-economic factors are the key factors that can slow or accelerate the current crisis.  Concurrently, China is pressing its neighbors – Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and South Korea – for concessions in the China Sea extending existing claims over Taiwan. Concurrently they are building a collation with Latin America and Africa. Our analysis shows that Russia is pivoting towards China creating a new coalition of the less developed societies that will reach power parity with the United States led West collation by 2035. These are conditions that may between 2035 and 2070 generate the power transition conditions that set the stage for a major international confrontation set prior to World War I and II. Unlike in the post 1998 following the collapse of the USSR constructive global policies that expanded WTO and the EU, current relations are confrontational.  US is building new Asia and European trade agreements. The US rejection of the new Asia bank led by China and the West gave a lukewarm reception to IMF initiatives to make yen a part of a mixture of international currencies.  Based on previous Eurasia experiences, we argue that the key observation point for the development of global cooperation or conflict will focus on events in the Ukraine crisis. We formally and empirically outline past events and future paths and propose means to alter the more confrontational alternatives.