The objective of this paper is to investigate labor market flows of men and women over the period 1990 to 2015, focusing on differences in employment status over the business cycle. Labor market flows can shed light on changes in the composition of the labor force by providing evidence on the sources and the duration of employment and unemployment, especially during periods of recession.
Background
For most of the 20th century the labor force participation rate of women increased, with the pace accelerating in the 1970s, resulting in an increase in the labor force participation rate of the population as a whole despite falling labor force participation rates of men. Differential unemployment rates for men and women are characteristic of the last two recessions. Yet, unemployment rates based on the number of the unemployed fail to capture the dynamic state of the labor market as individuals move into and out of various labor market statuses. Gross flows data provide a more detailed picture of how the labor market functions, especially as it responds to changes over the business cycle.
Data and Methods
Data are extracted from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics based on the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the Bureau of Census 1990 - 2015. These data include the number of individuals who are "employed", "unemployed", or "not in the labor force" as well as changes in workers’ employment status from the previous to the current month. Data are available for the total number of individuals ages 16 and over.
Expected Results
Analysis of gross flows data over the period will provide insight into the changing labor market statuses of both men and women. As the labor force participation rate of women grows and as women become more firmly attached to the labor force, I expect flows data to show a convergence of men’s and women’s labor market behavior over the past two and a half decades. I hypothesize that differences may be explained by occupational and industry disparities between men and women, the result of labor market segregation.