83rd International Atlantic Economic Conference

March 22 - 25, 2017 | Berlin, Germany

Does globalization promote economic growth?

Friday, 24 March 2017: 09:20
Candida Ferreira, Ph.D. , University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
This paper seeks to improve upon the existing literature by testing the possible effect of globalization on the real gross domestic product (GDP) of 44 countries, including all European Union member states as well as other relevant European and non-European countries.

Globalization is proxied first by variables related to international transactions (such as exports, imports and “openness to the rest of the world”) with data sourced from the World Development Indicators provided by the World Bank; and second by the globalization indexes provided by the database of the Swiss think-tank Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF), including the overall index and all the sub-indexes measuring the three main dimensions of globalization: economic, social and political.

The period of analysis covers the interval 1970-2013, with a few exceptions, depending on the data availability.

In our estimations we begin by testing the stationarity of the series using both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillips and Perron (PP) test,always taking into account the lag-order selection obtained through the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion (SBIC), and the Hannan and Quinn information criterion (HQIC) lag-order selection. We then test the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships though a traditional co-integration analysis, using Johansen tests for co-integration. We also apply quantile co-integration regressions, aiming to analyse the different long-run relationships between the considered globalisation measures and the real GDP growth across different quantiles.

The results allow us to draw conclusions about the relevance of the different aspects of globalization to economic growth, as well as about the comparisons between the different reactions of more or less developed countries located on different continents. The conclusions will emphasize the relevance of the process of globalization, but take into account the different characteristics of the considered countries and the distinct reactions and evolutions of their economic growth.