Impact of natural disasters on the sustainable development of neighboring countries: Case of Poland and Germany

Natural disaster, whatever the nature, entails two types of damage - direct and indirect. Direct damage includes damage to property, capital, natural resources and increased mortality and morbidity. Indirect losses are related to economic activity, i.e. the production of goods and services [Cavallo i Noy 2010], as well as the economic behavior of households, i.e. preventive savings, insurance, actions to protect against possible events, building fortifications, and migration. Natural disasters also cause development disparities between countries or regions. Despite the interaction of neighboring countries in the eradication of the effects of natural disasters, disproportions in terms of sustainable development after natural disasters may occur.

The main objective of the study is to determine the impact of natural disasters on the sustainable development of neighboring countries by examining the effects of natural disasters on the rate of economic growth and sustainable development indicators.

To realize the main objective, the author defined the auxiliary research aims as follows:

• qualitative analysis describing the frequency, scale and consequences of natural disasters in Poland and Germany against the background of European countries;
• comparison of the effects of natural disasters in Poland and Germany;
• study of the relationship between types of natural disasters that are taking place in Poland and in Germany and the indicators of economic growth;
• analysis of quantitative variables describing the macroeconomic sustainability after the occurrence of a natural disaster in Poland and Germany.

The study will cover the European countries in terms of natural disasters, in particular Poland and Germany as neighboring countries (undertaking joint action to eliminate the effects of natural disasters) over 10 years. The analysis will include: the number of natural disasters, material losses to gross domestic product (GDP), material losses per capita, and total number of victims in relation to the population. In addition, the inflation rate will be studied, the degree of openness of the economy, government spending / GDP and selected indicators describing sustainability (indicators of social, economic governance, institutional and political governance). Empirical analysis is based on econometric models for panel data. In addition, ordinary least squares regression will be applied. Data is from the EM-DAT international disasters database, and Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database.

The research should provide an answer to how natural disasters have affected rates of economic growth and disrupted the pace of sustainable development in Poland and Germany.