85th International Atlantic Economic Conference

March 14 - 17, 2018 | London, United Kingdom

Remittances, financial crisis and return migration: The case of Germany

Saturday, 17 March 2018: 12:10 PM
Mechthild Schrooten, Dr. , School of International Business, University of Applied Sciences-Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Elke Holst, Ph.D. , German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin, Germany
Andrea Schäfer, Master , Bremen University, Bremen, Germany
The international financial crisis which started in 2007 negatively affected the economy in most countries. This global economic downturn had a significant impact not only on the socio-economic status of immigrants but also on migration decisions within the extended household and thus on return migration plans. While the same factors can help to understand remitting behavior, changes in these factors in the course of the global financial crisis might have an impact on the decision to remit and the value of personal remittances.

Based on comparative observation of the same group of foreign nationals in Germany before and after the global financial crisis, this paper sheds light on how much foreign nationals in Germany decided to remit before and during times of crises given that they had remitted. Thus, we distinguish between two different periods: the years before the global financial crisis (2000-2006) which we call tranquil times and the years after the global financial crisis (2008-2013) which we call years of global crisis. As well the comparative empirical perspective focuses on remittance behavior of two contrasting and important groups of foreign nationals in Germany: Turkish and former Yugoslavian citizens.

We employed the Tobit method using the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data set which includes rich information on 10,198 foreign nationals for the years 2000-2006 and 8,619 foreign nationals for the years 2008-2013 in Germany, their return migration plans, demographic and social variables and the existence of personal transnational networks. In 2013 about 7 million foreigners were living in Germany. These micro data are gathered mainly through face-to-face interviews.

Results show that in years of global crisis: (1) personal remittance transfers from foreign nationals living in Germany decreased, (2) the socio-economic status of foreign nationals living in Germany played an increasing role for personal remittance, and (3) remigration plans became unimportant for the amount of remittances. However, there are interesting differences between the contrasting groups of foreign nationals in Germany. These results might challenge theoretical models on intra-family insurance and exchange explaining remittances.