Sunday, 14 October 2018: 11:55 AM
Periodic enlargements of the European Union (EU) have been accompanied by waves of intra-European labor migration. The 2004 enlargement was followed by a large wave of job seekers from eastern Europe into the more prosperous western Europe, Polish labor migrants comprised the largest ethnic segment of that inflow. In the past, labor migrations from Poland involved permanent emigration as decisions to move were hard to reverse. The post-2004 Polish migrants have been free to return home and the cost of reverse migration is not prohibitive. It is, thus, possible to observe and analyse factors, which influence migrants’ decisions to remain and settle in host countries or return home. Such remain/return commitments are often preceded by revealed intentions to remain/return, which could also be observed and probed. While such declared intentions should not be confused with definite plans to act in the stated way, they are nevertheless indicative of migrants’ sentiments about the relative attractiveness of different host and home countries at different points in time. Also, they influence migrants' future economic behaviour and shape their spectrum of future economic opportunities (Dustmann and Görlach 2016).
Post-2004 intra-EU labour migration has also occurred during the period of considerable economic turbulence in western Europe with the Global Financial Crisis unfolding in 2008 followed by the Euro crisis and the Brexit vote in 2016. The Polish economy, however, has been relatively unaffected by these shocks and the gap in real income per capita between Poland and the EU15 has narrowed. This combination of high economic turbulence in the EU15 and the improving Polish economy prompted us to investigate how Polish migrants in different European host markets have varied in their declared intentions to remain or return home. We have probed these revealed intentions using data from surveys of Polish labor migrants in the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands conducted by the Polish National Bank in 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2016.
Our main finding is that inter-country earnings differentials, a factor usually regarded as the main driver of labour migration, have only been significant during specific periods of time and in particular, country-specific circumstances. That is, while higher earnings may be the initial trigger of labour migration, it is usually other influences that impact labour mobility over time. Thus, migrant sentiments to remain/return tend to be influenced by a range of factors with earnings differentials gaining in importance during periods of economic stress/crises.
Post-2004 intra-EU labour migration has also occurred during the period of considerable economic turbulence in western Europe with the Global Financial Crisis unfolding in 2008 followed by the Euro crisis and the Brexit vote in 2016. The Polish economy, however, has been relatively unaffected by these shocks and the gap in real income per capita between Poland and the EU15 has narrowed. This combination of high economic turbulence in the EU15 and the improving Polish economy prompted us to investigate how Polish migrants in different European host markets have varied in their declared intentions to remain or return home. We have probed these revealed intentions using data from surveys of Polish labor migrants in the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands conducted by the Polish National Bank in 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2016.
Our main finding is that inter-country earnings differentials, a factor usually regarded as the main driver of labour migration, have only been significant during specific periods of time and in particular, country-specific circumstances. That is, while higher earnings may be the initial trigger of labour migration, it is usually other influences that impact labour mobility over time. Thus, migrant sentiments to remain/return tend to be influenced by a range of factors with earnings differentials gaining in importance during periods of economic stress/crises.