Saturday, 13 October 2018: 2:00 PM-4:00 PM
Chair:
Gary Clayton, Northern Kentucky University—USA
Organizer:
Gary Clayton, Northern Kentucky University—USA
Panelists:
Mohammad Ali, University of Maryland Eastern Shore—USA
Ansgar Belke, University of Duisburg–Essen—Germany
James Chen, Michigan State University—USA
Gal Hochman, Rutgers University—USA
Parameswar Krishnakumar, Slippery Rock University—USA
Carlos Liard-Muriente, Central Connecticut State University—USA
Gianluca Mattarocci, University of Rome Tor Vergata—Italy
Simin B. Mozayeni, State University of New York at New Paltz—USA
Gopal Naik, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore—India
Pu-Yan Nie, Jinan University-China—China
Mark Potter, Babson College—USA
J K Sachdeva, Shreemati Nathibai Damodar Thackersey Women's University—India
Vicar Valencia, Indiana University South Bend—USA
Sofoklis Vogiazas, Black Sea Trade and Development Bank—Greece
Ying Zhen, Wesleyan College—USA
Gary Clayton, Northern Kentucky University—USA
Ansgar Belke, University of Duisburg–Essen—Germany
James Chen, Michigan State University—USA
Gal Hochman, Rutgers University—USA
Parameswar Krishnakumar, Slippery Rock University—USA
Carlos Liard-Muriente, Central Connecticut State University—USA
Gianluca Mattarocci, University of Rome Tor Vergata—Italy
Simin B. Mozayeni, State University of New York at New Paltz—USA
Gopal Naik, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore—India
Pu-Yan Nie, Jinan University-China—China
Mark Potter, Babson College—USA
J K Sachdeva, Shreemati Nathibai Damodar Thackersey Women's University—India
Vicar Valencia, Indiana University South Bend—USA
Sofoklis Vogiazas, Black Sea Trade and Development Bank—Greece
Ying Zhen, Wesleyan College—USA
Gary Clayton, Northern Kentucky University—USA
Speakers:
Paul C. Noller, University of Warwick—United Kingdom
Presentation Title: Evaluating the credibility of the European bank bail-in commitment. The introduction of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) in the EU has raised hopes that tax funded bank bail-outs will be supplanted by creditor funded bail-ins. The success of the new framework will depend strongly on its credibility and market behaviour in pricing bond risk. This paper conceptualizes bail-in credibility as the Expected Loss-absorption on Assets before Bail-out, ELAB, obtained by evaluating a European put option on systemic bank assets against a CDS implied estimate for the implicit subsidy enjoyed by Systemically Important Banks. Results indicate that markets expect at most shallow bail-ins of some junior debt, illustrating a worrying lack of credibility of the BRRD and raising concerns for financial stability. Findings also show that the June 2017 Italian bail-outs have further reduced credibility.
Donato A. Onorato, University of Pennsylvania—USA
Presentation Title: Robots, unions, and aging: Determinants of robot adoption using evidence from OECD countries. In recent years there has been a growing concern about labor market changes due to rapid technological advancement in robotics and artificial intelligence. While much of the work on industrial robot adoption has looked at its effects on labor market outcomes, there is little empirical work documenting the determinants of this adoption. We analyze the role that aging, unions, and a reliance on automatable industries play in characterizing robot adoption during the period from 2000 to 2015 in 34 OECD countries. We use a simple two-sector model that allows the relative supply of young and old labor to affect robot adoption to motivate our empirical analysis. Using this model as a foundation, we estimate large and robust negative effects of aging and unions on industrial robot adoption amongst OECD countries. The effects documented are robust to various characterizations of young and old workers. Based on our estimates, we predict that had the ratio of young-to-old workers and union density remained at their 2010 levels, on average there would be 3.29 and 1.34 fewer robots per 10,000 workers in 2015. Additionally, we predict that by 2020 the OECD will add an additional 9.95 robots per 10,000 workers, doubling the OECD average during the sample period. South Korea, Germany, and Slovakia will see the largest increases of 80, 23, and 21 additional robots per 10,000 workers respectively.
Maria Polyakova, University of Warwick—United Kingdom
Presentation Title: Child marriage and female educational attainment: An investigation into a complex relationship using Nigerian data. This paper investigates the relationship between child marriage and educational attainment. It confirms previous results by identifying a negative conditional correlation between years of child marriage and the probabilities of having some and a complete secondary education. However, it also demonstrates that the instruments used in previous studies may be invalid, casting doubt over the magnitude of the relationship. It thus provides a base for substantial further research.
Iuliia Vasileva, Lafayette College—Russia
Presentation Title: Effect of inflation targeting on foreign direct investment flows to developing countries. Due to the many benefits that come with FDI, such as greater economic growth and technology spillovers, developing countries strive to attract this type of investment. Although the amount of FDI in developing countries has increased greatly over the past several years, not all developing countries have been successful at attracting it. A credible monetary policy, such as inflation targeting, might make countries that implement it a more attractive destination for FDI flows due to the reliable macroeconomic environment it creates. This paper estimates the effect of inflation targeting (IT) on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries using difference-in-differences approach and panel data of 71 countries spanning from 1985 to 2013. This paper also looks at the difference between targeting and non-targeting countries in terms of FDI inflows during times of high instability. The results indicate that the adoption of IT leads to increased FDI flows to developing countries overall and, most importantly, during times of distress.
Presentation Title: Evaluating the credibility of the European bank bail-in commitment. The introduction of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) in the EU has raised hopes that tax funded bank bail-outs will be supplanted by creditor funded bail-ins. The success of the new framework will depend strongly on its credibility and market behaviour in pricing bond risk. This paper conceptualizes bail-in credibility as the Expected Loss-absorption on Assets before Bail-out, ELAB, obtained by evaluating a European put option on systemic bank assets against a CDS implied estimate for the implicit subsidy enjoyed by Systemically Important Banks. Results indicate that markets expect at most shallow bail-ins of some junior debt, illustrating a worrying lack of credibility of the BRRD and raising concerns for financial stability. Findings also show that the June 2017 Italian bail-outs have further reduced credibility.
Donato A. Onorato, University of Pennsylvania—USA
Presentation Title: Robots, unions, and aging: Determinants of robot adoption using evidence from OECD countries. In recent years there has been a growing concern about labor market changes due to rapid technological advancement in robotics and artificial intelligence. While much of the work on industrial robot adoption has looked at its effects on labor market outcomes, there is little empirical work documenting the determinants of this adoption. We analyze the role that aging, unions, and a reliance on automatable industries play in characterizing robot adoption during the period from 2000 to 2015 in 34 OECD countries. We use a simple two-sector model that allows the relative supply of young and old labor to affect robot adoption to motivate our empirical analysis. Using this model as a foundation, we estimate large and robust negative effects of aging and unions on industrial robot adoption amongst OECD countries. The effects documented are robust to various characterizations of young and old workers. Based on our estimates, we predict that had the ratio of young-to-old workers and union density remained at their 2010 levels, on average there would be 3.29 and 1.34 fewer robots per 10,000 workers in 2015. Additionally, we predict that by 2020 the OECD will add an additional 9.95 robots per 10,000 workers, doubling the OECD average during the sample period. South Korea, Germany, and Slovakia will see the largest increases of 80, 23, and 21 additional robots per 10,000 workers respectively.
Maria Polyakova, University of Warwick—United Kingdom
Presentation Title: Child marriage and female educational attainment: An investigation into a complex relationship using Nigerian data. This paper investigates the relationship between child marriage and educational attainment. It confirms previous results by identifying a negative conditional correlation between years of child marriage and the probabilities of having some and a complete secondary education. However, it also demonstrates that the instruments used in previous studies may be invalid, casting doubt over the magnitude of the relationship. It thus provides a base for substantial further research.
Iuliia Vasileva, Lafayette College—Russia
Presentation Title: Effect of inflation targeting on foreign direct investment flows to developing countries. Due to the many benefits that come with FDI, such as greater economic growth and technology spillovers, developing countries strive to attract this type of investment. Although the amount of FDI in developing countries has increased greatly over the past several years, not all developing countries have been successful at attracting it. A credible monetary policy, such as inflation targeting, might make countries that implement it a more attractive destination for FDI flows due to the reliable macroeconomic environment it creates. This paper estimates the effect of inflation targeting (IT) on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries using difference-in-differences approach and panel data of 71 countries spanning from 1985 to 2013. This paper also looks at the difference between targeting and non-targeting countries in terms of FDI inflows during times of high instability. The results indicate that the adoption of IT leads to increased FDI flows to developing countries overall and, most importantly, during times of distress.