Thursday, 28 March 2019: 9:20 AM
There is a long-standing debate on whether economic interdependence can have an impact and play a crucial role in diminishing interstate conflict. Two schools of thought advocating two opposite beliefs regarding this debate are Realism and Liberalism. The former suggests that economic interdependence does not necessarily promote peace, whereas the latter trusts that it does. According to Liberalism, there is a direct connection between trade and conflict, in other words, between economic factors and security issues. On the contrary, realists argue that what applies to the international system also applies to trade policy, hence economic cooperation among states has a limited effect when it comes to national security issues. We investigate the above debate, using a theoretical framework derived from the disciplines of international political economics and using methodological tools from the fields of econometrics, with financial and economic perspectives. More precisely, we attempt to enrich the existing academic discussion through the introduction of variables in a series of econometric models using ordinary least squares (OLS). Our data set consists of sovereignty violations, casualties and defense expenses, as well as bilateral trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between the two rivals. The newly introduced variables are the measures of national security along with indicators of economic interdependence. The national security data come from the relevant country reports or agencies, while the macroeconomic variables are derived from the World Bank (2017) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (2017), as well as the Comtrade (2018) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2018) covering the years from 1980 to 2017. We concluded that economic interdependence does not have an impact on interstate conflict, as measured by all available types of violations of one country against the other.