Friday, 29 March 2019: 3:00 PM
Dimitrios Anastasiou, Ph.D. , Accounting & Finance, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece
Konstantinos Drakos, Ph.D. , Accounting & Finance, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece
By employing search volume data on crisis-related queries from the Google Trends database and by introducing two new (modified) crisis sentiment indicators, we set out to investigate the impact of two different types of crisis sentiment on bank deposit flows for the 27-European Union countries in the post-crisis era. Generally speaking, the notion behind the Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search (FEARS) Index is to capture the aggregate sentiment of households towards the economy, using search terms that are related to the overall state of the economy (Irresberger et. al., 2015). Da et. al. (2015) found that the FEARS Index is able to forecast both short-term returns’ reversals and the short-term volatility of the whole market. Irresberger et. al., (2015) concluded that an increase in the FEARS Index leads investors to devalue U.S. bank stocks and hence to make irrational choices. Our two new crisis sentiment indicators (i.e. FEAR_INDEX 1 and FEAR_INDEX 2) were found to be negatively associated with banks’ deposit flows. According to our findings, European bank deposit flows are significantly driven by peoples’ irrational market-wide crisis sentiment (as captured by a wide variety of Google searches). Furthermore, from our results we can infer that personal attitudes and depositors’ sentiment instead of bank fundamentals play a crucial role in the explanation of the depositors’ behavior. Our results are in line with those of Gorton (1988). We find a strong inverse association between bank deposit flows and depositors’ aggregate expectations of a potential financial drawdown. The results of our models were first based on the methodology of random effects with robust standard errors. Then, by employing a panel VAR methodology, our findings give us further econometric evidence regarding the so-called depositors’ sentiment. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study which introduces two new to the literature crisis sentiment indices as direct measures of depositors’ sentiment in EU countries. This is the first study which examines behavioral factors as possible drivers of households’ behavior regarding deposits. Our results provide additional evidence for the idea that sentiment instead of fundamentals occasion bank runs.