Friday, 29 March 2019: 10:10 AM
This paper offers new insight into how the Bank of Japan sets interest rates in the context of a Taylor type rule model paying particular attention to the low interest rate and financial crisis episodes that Japan has been subject to over the past decades. The paper marks a significant point of departure from previous literature whereby the estimations are conducted not only at various points on the conditional distribution of the dependent variable, (i.e., the interest rates) but also at various quantiles of the regressors, with specific focus on an uncertainty measure. What the quantile on quantile estimation offers is the possibility to test predictions of greater or lesser aggression at different bounds of low or high quantile of interest rates conditional on whether the economy is at different uncertainty levels. In so doing, we try to shed light on whether monetary policy in Japan reacts symmetrically to low or high uncertainty when the policy maker’s policy instrument is either low or high, keeping in mind that Japan has been at the zero lower bound over most of the sample period. The results show that the Bank of Japan has adopted a more cautious monetary policy stance consistent with a large body of literature to confirm the Brainard attenuation principle. In essence, faced with higher uncertainty, the monetary authority reacts by cutting its policy rate. Furthermore, the results show that this reaction is larger at lower levels of interest rates, irrespective of the level of uncertainty, a result reinforcing the expansionary instance that the Bank has taken in order to alleviate recessionary outcomes that the country has faced over its extended economic history.