Subnational population volatility in Canada and the United States over the decades

A comparative analysis of population trends between the United States and Canada constitutes an important area of research with significant implications for economic sustainability and public policy. While extensive literature exists pertaining to population trends within Canada and the United States, a comparative analysis of the two nations appears to be novel. This study therefore examines the disparities and similarities in the demographic trajectories of the two countries over half-a-century, and then analyzes the relevant public policy implications for each country to promote economic sustainability for subsequent generations.

Multivariate statistical analysis was used to analyze the data in addition to descriptive and inferential statistics. Alternative regression specifications reveal a pattern of continued growth in metropolitan areas in sharp contrast to a hollowing out or stagnation of population in a majority of non-metropolitan areas in the two countries.

First, it was observed that both countries are facing similar demographic challenges with sub-national population volatility: expansion in mega-urban agglomerations and rapid decline in many non-metropolitan regions. Metropolitan areas have experienced elevated levels of population and geographic growth between 1960-61 and 2015-16.1 Expansion in metropolitan populations stand in sharp contrast to stagnant, often shrinking, non metropolitan populations. Second, demographic shifts are changing not only the distribution of population in these two countries, but also the geographical characteristics of their metropolitan areas. While the metropolitan population increased substantially over the period studied, the aggregate metropolitan land area increased more than proportionately, leading to diminished population density and suburban sprawl.

Such fluctuations in population levels and distribution constitute a natural evolution in the demographic composition of developed nations. As such, they do not elicit significant economic ramifications. It is the rapidity with which such demographic changes occur that is of critical importance. In essence, rapid oscillations in sub-national population levels in both Canada and the United States causes as a declining tax-base in non-metropolitan areas, and insufficient infrastructure in expanding metropolitan regions. It is thus imperative that policy-makers consider the prospective implications of subnational population volatility, especially the hollowing out of non-metropolitan jurisdictions to ensure sustainable economic prosperity and demographic balance.

[i] Census years in the two countries did not match perfectly, thus comparisons are made between decennial censuses in 1960 in the United States and 1961 in Canada; 1970 in the U.S. and 1971 in Canada, and so on.