This presentation is part of: J20-1 Demographics, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination

Reversal of Fortune: The Unexpected Increase in Labor Force Participation of Older Males

Donald A. Coffin, Ph.D., School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest, 3400 Broadway, Gary, IN 46408

Labor force participation rates for older males (ages 55 – 64 and 65+) declined steadily from 1948 until the mid-1990s.  For males age 55 – 64, the decline was from nearly 90% in 1949 to about 64% in early 1994; for men 65 and over, from about 46% in 1948 to less than 16% by the end of 1993.  (http://www.bls.gov/cps/data.htm)  Then, labor force participation for both age groups began to rise, and have risen fairly steadily over the last decade-and-a-half [to about 71% (about a 10% increase) and 22% (about a 35% increase), respectively].  While the recent declines in teen labor force participation rates have been examined (Aaronson, et al., 2006; Coffin, 2007; Kirkland, 2002), the equally significant changes in older male labor force participation have gone largely unremarked.  In this paper, I examine the causes of the changes in older male labor force participation using both a time-series approach (using BLS data on labor force participation and other relevant data) and a cross-section/time-series approach using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.

Aaronson; Daniel; Park, Kyung-Hong; and Sullivan, Daniel (2006).  ”The Decline in Teen Labor Force Participation.”  Economic Perspectives.  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Vol. 30, No. 1), pp. 2-18.

Coffin, Donald A. (2007).  “Understanding the Decline in the Labor Force Participation of Teenagers.”  Journal of the Indiana Academy of Social Sciences.  Vol. XI, pp. 99-09/

Kirkland, Katie (2002).  “Declining Teen Labor Force Participation.”  Issues in Labor Statistics.  http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils49.pdf.