This presentation is part of: D00-1 Microeconomic Theory

Perceptions of Risk Upon Group Based Decisions

Mayes D. Mathews, Ph.D., Computer Information Systems, Saint Leo University, PO Box 99, Toano, VA 23168 and Shannon Jackson, Ph.D., Management, Saint Leo University, PO Box 4326, Fort Eustis, VA 23604.

Groups engaged in activities without certainty must find mechanisms to cope with risk.  Risk may invigorate some group activities, stifle other activities, or may have no affect on others.  But any group engaged in matters of choice must accept or reject alternatives based upon perceptions of risk and how these perceptions affect the outcome of free choice.
            Traditional works dealing with group decision making do not normally consider situations where the group is uncertain of the potential outcomes.  However, Von Neumann and Morgenstern have shown that it is possible to construct a set of values or utility values for a particular consumer that can be used to predict choices in some uncertain situations.  Controversy about their work usually revolves around the ordinal or cardinal nature of the index developed for the consumer. Unfortunately, Von Neumann and Morgenstern utility functions are unrealistic when considering group behaviors. Their work assumes particular circumstances which are known a priori. When considering group behavior, this assumption is generally unrealistic.
Presented here is an investigation of this interesting aspect of human behavior.  This paper will develop a utility function that may be used to describe situations involving group aversion to risk, group risk seeking activities, and activities that are neutral in risk tolerance.  Such a utility function promises additional understanding and prediction of group decision making under conditions of risk.