This presentation is part of: G30-1 Corporate Finance/investment

Liquidity, Investment and Risky Debt

Trevor Chamberlain, Ph.D., Finance and Business Economics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, DSB/304, Hamilton, ON L8S 4M4, Canada

                This paper presents a model in which a levered firm faces a trade-off between investing its endogenous liquid assets and retaining them for future debt service. In the model external financing is costly, as future cash flows cannot be fully pledged as collateral. Under uncertainty, at least some of the firm’s cash flows will be dependent upon its ability to meet its debt obligations. Hence, the firm faces a trade-off between committing liquidity to projects that will generate cash flows in the future only if the interim debt payments are made, and holding liquid assets in order to reduce the likelihood of default, thereby increasing the probability that future benefits from the investments will be realized. As a result, in the presence of financial constraints, the firm optimally retains some liquid assets as a precautionary measure against a short fall in the future when debt payments are due. Risky debt may, as a result, lead to underinvestment.

                The model predicts that the optimal holding of liquid assets rises with factors that increase the firm’s default risk. For example, cash is positively related to the amount of debt and the cost of external financing, and, negatively, to the firm’s profitability. Because these factors affect default premia, this endogenous adjustment in liquidity results in a positive relationship between liquidity and default premia. At the same time, exogenous variations in the firm’s liquidity that are unrelated to default risk factors are negatively correlated with default premia, as they reduce the probability of default and increase lenders’ recoveries upon default. For example, if growth opportunities or agency problems affect the firm’s default premia, then the variations in liquidity levels that they induce should be negatively correlated with these premia.  Hence the model focuses on the distinction between endogenous liquid assets, which depend on determinants of risk premia and their exogenous component, expected to be negatively related to default risk premia. It also predicts that higher liquidity reduces the risk of default in the short run, but may increase that risk in the long run, as a constrained firm trying to conserve liquidity may have to forego profitable investment opportunities. Finally, the model generates a number of empirical predictions regarding the dependence of liquidity on various firm characteristics, suggesting a theoretical framework for empirical studies of liquidity levels.