This is a study that investigates
U.S. military enlistment rates since the commencement of the
Iraq war in an effort to identify key factors that help explain them and the recent downturn therein. Using a state-level panel data set, the military enlistment rate is found to be a function of private-sector income (measured in this study in two different ways) and the proportion of the population with a bachelors degree or higher. It is also a function of the proportion of the population
without health insurance coverage and the proportion of the population who are veterans. Finally, the study adopts the casualty rate as an explanatory variable reflecting risk and finds it to be a significant variable. The study covers the period from 2003 till 2007 thus covering the whole span of Operation Iraqi freedom. We expect the study to reflect the effects on enlistment rates due to a significant change in military strategy in 2007 and also the changes in enlistment patterns dues to lowering of standards in 2004. The panel data set spanning five years provides us with a robust model. The study is specific to first time enlistments and does not include reenlistments in theatre or stateside.