The labor force participation rates of men in the United States have been declining for more than a century. This decline in the labor participation of men is evident in all age categories. Part of this trend may be attributed to structural changes within the last century including child labor legislation, fewer hours worked per day, more paid holidays and vacations, and increased schooling. For “prime age” males, labor force participation rates have fallen from 92.5 percent in 1990 to 85.6 percent in 2000. Thus, other factors may play a role in this trend including race, marital status, and higher non-wage income.

Given the historically low rates of unemployment during part of the last 2 decades, falling labor force participation rates of prime age males is puzzling. The objectives of this paper are twofold. First I identify those factors that affect prime age males’ decisions to withdrawal from the labor force. I then estimate the probability of the withdrawal of prime age males from the labor force.

Data and Methods

I utilize family data files from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the years 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2005. These files contain more than 8,000 records and almost 3,100 variables including occupation, industry, and work histories. These data provide extensive information on the heads of households and their spouses/partners. The sample used here consists of “prime age” males, that is, males between the ages of 25 and 54 years (inclusive) who are neither working nor are unemployed.

I employ a probit model to estimate the probability that a prime age male is out of the labor force. Using personal and socio-economic explanatory variables I compare trends over the past 25 years.

Expected Results

Falling labor force participation of men has many and diverse causes, most notably the forestalling of entry into the labor force due to greater human capital investment and the hastening of withdrawal from the labor force in later years due to social security and pensions. Yet, withdrawal from the labor force of prime age males is perplexing. I expect my results to show that rather than an aberration, patterns of labor force (non) participation are rational.

Discussion

The “Labor/Leisure” choice is perhaps one of the most important and significant decisions an individual can make during his working life. Given the falling labor force participation of men in general and of prime age men in particular, questions arise. Specifically, are prime age males “pulled” out of the labor force by more attractive “leisure” options or, are they pushed out of the labor force by rapidly changing skill and educational requirements? Empirical analysis can shed light on these questions and provide a basis for policy recommendations.