Christine Fay, M.A. and Toni Gravelle, Ph.D. Financial Markets Department, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, ON K1A 0G9, Canada
We empirically examine the reaction of Canadian financial markets to official Bank of Canada communication and in particular their reaction to the recent use of “forward looking statements” (a.k.a. policy rate guidance/signals or monetary policy inclination statements) included in these communications. This is done to investigate the extent to which Bank of Canada monetary policy transparency has improved. We find evidence that Fixed Announcement Date (FAD) press statements, and to a lesser extent speeches by Governing Council members, significantly affect near-term interest rate expectations indicating that central bank communication conveys important information to market participants. However, our results also show that FAD press statements and speeches do not significantly impact market rates over the more recent period when “forward looking statements” have been used on a regular basis. We investigate two explanations for this change in response. First, that market participants now better understand the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy reaction function and, as such, there is less new incremental information conveyed in these communications. Alternatively, that market participants have focused more on the forward looking statements themselves and less on the Banks’ discussion of the economic outlook (i.e., the Bank of Canada has become more predictable). As such the participants would respond less to new macroeconomic data releases than before. We find evidence to support the latter explanation.