This presentation is part of: C10-1 Econometric and Statistical Studies

Modeling Skewness and Elongation in Financial Returns: The Case of ETFs

Alison Kelly-Hawke, Ph.D., Economics, Suffolk University, 8 Ashburton Place, Boston, MA 02108 and Sanjiv Jaggia, Ph.D., Orfalea College of Business, Cal Poly State University, 1 Grand Avenue, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407.

Abstract - Recent studies have documented the importance of asymmetry and tail-fatness of returns on portfolio-choice, asset-pricing, value-at-risk, and option-valuation models.  This paper explores the nature of skewness and elongation in daily exchange-traded fund (ETF) return distributions using g, h and (g x h) distributions.  These exploratory data analytic techniques of Tukey (1977) reveal patterns that are hidden from a cursory glance at traditional measures for skewness and elongation.  The g, h and (g x h) distributions provide parameter estimates that indicate substantial variation in skewness and elongation for individual ETFs; nonetheless, some trends are discovered when the funds are grouped by fund size and style of investing.  Monte Carlo simulations suggest that these exploratory techniques are able to capture patterns found in commonly used GARCH family of models.

Key Words: ETF, Skewness, Kurtosis, g and h distributions, GARCH, Simulation