This presentation is part of: G10-2 Financial Market Anaylsis

Financial Modelling and Forecasting from the KNF's Perspective

Stanislaw Kluza, Ph.D., Polish Financial Supervision Authority, Plac Powstancow Warszawy 1, Warsaw, 00 950, Poland

Financial Modelling and Forecasting from the KNF’s Perspective
I.                    KNF vs. Scientific Research
1.      Arguments AGAINST:
·        The objectives of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) do not include conduct of scientific research – no research programme.
·        The KNF may not sponsor scientific research projects.
·        The KNF may not disclose any individual data (information obtained in the exercise of the regulatory function is covered by the professional secrecy obligation).
·        Supervision is performed mainly along industry lines. The KNF does not study e.g. macroeconomic processes.
2.      Arguments FOR:
·        The KNF may benefit from scientific research. 
·        Various educational initiatives are undertaken under the auspices of the KNF.
·        The KNF promotes outreach initiatives which may stimulate development of the financial market.
·        Representative of the KNF take part in academic and industry conferences.
II.                 Weaknesses of Prominent Scientific Research
·        High level of abstraction.
·        Lack of conclusions and objectives.
·        Making simple methodologies and process explanations unnecessarily complicated (language = terminology, formal description).
III.               Scientific Research Themes Whose Analysis May be Relevant to Financial Supervision
1.      Risk Analysis and Financial System Security
2.      Sector Analyses (Banking, Insurance, Capital Market, Pension Market)
3.      Automatic Detection of Outlayers on the Financial Market (Frauds) 
4.      Development Incentives for Sectors, Industries and Products
5.      RIA – Regulatory Impact Assessment