This presentation is part of: C10-2 Application of Quantitative Methods in Economic Research

Uncertainty in Economic Research

Malgorzata Latuszynska, Ph., D., Institute of IT in Management, University of Szczecin, Mickiewicza 64, Szczecin, 71 101, Poland and Mariusz Borawski, Ph., D., Faculty of Information Science, Technical University of Szczecin, Zolnierska 49, Szczecin, 71-211, Poland.

The data  used in an economic research  is often characterized  by uncertainty.  The data uncertainty degree is a very important factor  determining  reliability and usability of the research results. The data uncertainty is described by laws of mathematical statistics. Generalizing  the notion of a distribution and a variance we can create  a numerical set with elements governed by laws of both algebra and statistics during arithmetic operation execution. The paper will describe uncertainty calculus based on this numerical set and show examples of applications in econometric and simulation models.