Saturday, 27 March 2010: 12:15
The purpose of this paper is to explain annual economic growth per person across about 100 countries and over initially 50 or so years, but later more, using a succession of panel data analyses. The analysis works through birth and death rates to shares of populations 0 to 5 years. 5 to 15 years, 15 to 60 years and over 60 years, for each year and country. Average years of education attained by the workforces of the countries is then estimated for each year, using Cohen and Soto data together with population age shares, GDP per person and life expectancy. Capital stock is estimated using the inventory method, GDP and capital investment as a share of GDP. Oil production is also allowed for, by year and country.
The results may be rather different from the usual "Barro" ones, which often use cross section techniques and Penn World tables data. The explicit incorporation of important natural resource effects should be one reason. More comprehensive education data should be another.
The authors will also comment on the possible use of developments of these analyses to explain how, for example, the benefit of EU membership to relevant countries could be assessed.