69th International Atlantic Economic Conference

March 24 - 27, 2010 | Prague, Czech Republic

The European Emerging Markets after the Global Recession:  A Macroeconomic View

Saturday, 27 March 2010: 11:15
Ingrid Majerová, Ph.D. , Department of Economy, Silesian University in Opava - School of Business Administration in Karvina, Karviná, Czech Republic

Abstract:

The term, like exact list as well, of emerging markets (EM) is difficult to describe. Generally we can say that emerging market are countries, where social or business activity is in process of rapid growth and industrialization and are on the level scale between developing and developed markets. On one side is classification of Morgan Stanley, FTSE Group or The Economist, which list of EM are very similar (they include about 22 countries) on the other side International Monetary Fund includes all, former and today, transitions economies (so the number of EM is bigger).

For my analysis and comparison I chose three of European EM – Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. From reasons of various differences I left the idea to compare Russia (in the comparison with given economics has this country different economic, social and spatial conditions). Although the first appointed country is – by FTSE Group – included to secondary EM and Hungary with Poland to advanced EM, is expected that Czech Republic will be moved to the first group in 2010.

Before the global recession was the economic situation in those EM relatively stabilised. The Czech Republic and Poland were on the similar level (except unemployment that was higher in Poland), while Hungary fought more about improving of macroeconomics indicators. Economic growth was (except Hungary) higher than in whole European Union, inflation rate  higher but under control, unemployment rate satisfactory, economics conditions for investors good. After US “difficulties” beginning was very probably that they will set in by European countries as well.

The European Emerging Markets have followed the global economic slowdown in various effects - while Poland is to avoid recession entirely, the Czech Republic is estimated to contract less and Hungary more. There were two factors behind the contraction: falling exports (the Czech Republic, Hungary) and undergoing fiscal consolidation (present only in Hungary this year). However, we have seen first signs of stabilization in the region. While Hungary, which hasn´t bottomed out yet, will start recovery later than in first quarter 2010 and growth is expected only about 0-1%, the Czech Republic and Poland are to grow about 2-3% in 2010.

Key Words: Emerging Market, European Emerging Markets, Global Recession, Gross Domestic Products, Unemployment, Inflation, Debt, Economic Growth

Objectives: A Macroeconomics Condition´s Comparison of European Emerging Markets (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) before, during and after Global Recession

Methods: Analysis, Comparison, Correlation Analysis Results: The European Emerging Markets have followed the global economic slowdown in various effects - while Poland is to avoid recession entirely, the Czech Republic is estimated to contract less and the most apprehensive economy is Hungary