Saturday, 27 March 2010: 17:45
The 2007-08 financial crisis led to the 2008-09 global recession which is causing (since the forth quarter 2008) dramatic consequences on labour markets of many countries in the world.
In this paper, after a review of the existing literature, we produce new econometric results on the impact of past financial crises on labour markets (1980-2005), then we discuss ongoing evidences (2009) and forecasts (2010-2011) and, finally, we derive some key economic (and labour) policy implications.
An important contribution of this study is the estimation of the impact of past financial crises on (un)employment dynamics and the discussion of the implications of findings for the current crisis. We are well aware of the peculiarities of the current crisis – especially its global nature – compared to previous financial crises, concerning in most cases individual countries or specific group of countries. Nevertheless, we think that – with appropriate cautions in the interpretation of the results – some inferences can be made concerning the effects of the present crisis.
In the first part of the paper we review the selected literature on the labour market impact of financial crises, including the very recent literature on the ongoing impact of 2007-08 crisis.
The second section is dedicated to discuss the econometric results on the impact of financial crises on key labour market performance indicators (employment and unemployment rates), by considering a large panel of countries (ranging from 64 to 86, depending upon the availability of data for different specifications) for the period 1980-2005. We employed random effects panel estimation technique to empirically evaluate the financial crises impact on employment dynamics.To investigate the severity of financial crisis for economies at different development levels, we re-estimate our model for sub-samples of four different income groups. As for the unemployment rate indicator, a gender distinction is considered and the "persistence" of the impact of financial crises has also been investigated.
As for the database, we use the definition of "financial crisis" adopted in Honohan and Laeven (2005) that consider both "systemic banking crises" and "non-systemic banking crises". In addition, but as sensitivity analysis, we also consider: (i) "systemic banking crises"; (ii) "currency crises" (Laeven and Valencia, 2008); (iii) sovereign "debt crises" (Laeven andValencia , 2008). We also control for the effect of financial crises on (un)employment rates introducing the following additional control variables: capital stock per worker (UNIDO Database), foreign direct investment, degree of openness and inflation (WB - World Development Indicators database). Data on labour market performance indicators are taken from "The Conference Board and the Groningen Growth and Development Centre, total economy data base and WDI. The expected results (already obtained in the preliminary econometric investigations) refer to the significant impact of financial crises on labour market indicators.
In the final section, very recent data (November 2009) and forecasts (2010 and 2011) on labour market performance, especially the dynamics of unemployment and employment rates, are briefly discussed with some key policy implications and suggestions to deal with adverse affects of financial crises on labor markets.
In this paper, after a review of the existing literature, we produce new econometric results on the impact of past financial crises on labour markets (1980-2005), then we discuss ongoing evidences (2009) and forecasts (2010-2011) and, finally, we derive some key economic (and labour) policy implications.
An important contribution of this study is the estimation of the impact of past financial crises on (un)employment dynamics and the discussion of the implications of findings for the current crisis. We are well aware of the peculiarities of the current crisis – especially its global nature – compared to previous financial crises, concerning in most cases individual countries or specific group of countries. Nevertheless, we think that – with appropriate cautions in the interpretation of the results – some inferences can be made concerning the effects of the present crisis.
In the first part of the paper we review the selected literature on the labour market impact of financial crises, including the very recent literature on the ongoing impact of 2007-08 crisis.
The second section is dedicated to discuss the econometric results on the impact of financial crises on key labour market performance indicators (employment and unemployment rates), by considering a large panel of countries (ranging from 64 to 86, depending upon the availability of data for different specifications) for the period 1980-2005. We employed random effects panel estimation technique to empirically evaluate the financial crises impact on employment dynamics.To investigate the severity of financial crisis for economies at different development levels, we re-estimate our model for sub-samples of four different income groups. As for the unemployment rate indicator, a gender distinction is considered and the "persistence" of the impact of financial crises has also been investigated.
As for the database, we use the definition of "financial crisis" adopted in Honohan and Laeven (2005) that consider both "systemic banking crises" and "non-systemic banking crises". In addition, but as sensitivity analysis, we also consider: (i) "systemic banking crises"; (ii) "currency crises" (Laeven and Valencia, 2008); (iii) sovereign "debt crises" (Laeven and
In the final section, very recent data (November 2009) and forecasts (2010 and 2011) on labour market performance, especially the dynamics of unemployment and employment rates, are briefly discussed with some key policy implications and suggestions to deal with adverse affects of financial crises on labor markets.