69th International Atlantic Economic Conference

March 24 - 27, 2010 | Prague, Czech Republic

An Expert System for Estimating Punctual Housing Prices

Thursday, 25 March 2010: 15:50
Beatriz Larraz, Ph.D. , University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
The valuation of real estate properties is of great concern to all the agents involved in the real estate market, especially for investors, financial institutions and credit companies. In particular, the recently updated legislation in Spain pretending the legal requirements being more sensitive to the risks that the entities really support in its business, states the revision of the mortgaged residential property value each three years motivated by the fall in the average housing prices that the official authorities publish quarterly in Spain; this revision can be carried out through statistical methods. In this sense, though there is a large statistical literature on real estate valuation, traditionally, residential properties valuation procedure is based on the comparison to the nearest property prices being necessary to consult human experts. In order to fill this information gap this article presents an expert system developed by the Spanish firm Axesor, which allows not only punctual but also big portfolios valuations in the financial market framework using the most recently developed spatial statistical methods (kriging). The final report provides an online, immediate and complete description of the residential property which is being valuated (including the information provided by the land registry about the charges), its updated market price estimation, the evolution of the area average prices in the last years as well as the environment conditions of each residential property sited in any place of Spanish territory.