Our data consist of quarterly series for the period 1960Q1-2007Q4 obtained from the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). We consider OECD countries (31 countries) and selected emerging market countries (20 countries)[2]. In order to analyse the impact of the level and growth of debt prior to the recession on the economic growth after the recession, we need to identify and date business cycles. For that purpose, we employ the method developed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and Harding and Pagan (2002). Thereafter we use regression analysis to assess the impact of debt on economic growth. Our proxy for debt is the loans granted by domestic financial institutions to resident non-financial companies and households.
The debt level and debt growth prior to the recession have a minor effect on economic growth after a recession. The higher the pre-recession debt level, the smaller economic growth after the crisis. Empirical analysis reveals that a 50-point higher debt burden in relation to GDP causes a 0.3 pp smaller average economic growth. Contrary to expectations, there is a (weak) positive correlation between debt growth and economic growth. The higher the previous debt growth, the greater economic growth after the recession. When controlling for the growth potential of the countries, the positive correlation decreases, but remains significant.
The results suggest that economic growth is mostly defined by other factors beside level of debt and debt growth. Countries with stronger growth before a recession also show larger growth after the recession. At the same time, the negative effect of the debt level on private consumption is nearly twice as big as on economic growth. This is primarily because private consumption needs to be curbed in order to reduce the debt.