A decision framework for deployment of small modular reactors in developing economies

Objectives. Global energy demand is growing while the momentum behind use of fossil fuels as the primary source of energy production continues into the foreseeable future. Increased energy demand will be greatest in developing countries where the desire to grow economically is often hindered by what the United Nations has deemed ‘energy poverty’ where the well-being of large numbers of people is negatively affected by a combination of very low consumption of energy, use of dirty or polluting fuels, and excessive time spent collecting fuel to meet basic needs.  As developing economies progress up the energy ladder, they have the opportunity to transcend the use of fossil fuels and begin to address issues such as climate change, domestic energy security, and improved electricity access.  An emerging energy technology with distinct advantages for growing economies is small modular reactors (SMRs).  SMRs have lower capital costs compared to large nuclear or coal facilities, electrical outputs that match less developed energy infrastructures, improved safety features, and factory built modules that can be transported to even remote locations.  SMRs offer the flexibility to support electrical generation as well as cogeneration, industrial heat, desalinization, and other uses particularly applicable to developing countries. SMRs are uniquely capable of obtaining a strong market presence and supplying a significant portion of rising energy demand over the coming decades. As a result, an investigation of their feasibility and market potential for developing countries is warranted.

Data/Methods. This study evaluates the use of SMRs in emerging economies and creates a decision support framework for siting SMRs in developing countries.  The decision framework begins by identifying the necessary conditions that must be met such as minimum levels of GDP, per capita GDP, electrical grid capacity, and levels of foreign direct investment, signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and membership in the IAEA.  For countries meeting these thresholds, the decision framework then considers criteria containing: financial condition, current technology framework, government policy, and human development. These include legal and regulatory framework, infrastructure, existing power generation, developmental and economic growth potential, natural resources, climate change priorities, investment risk, geography, co-generation needs, business environment, governmental transparency, and key financial indicators. Quantitative measures are used to rank countries across each category and in total.  For countries ranking high for the potential use of SMRs, financial feasibility and implementation analysis is conducted with four financing options, private, public, public-private, and multilateral, that will affect SMR procurement by developing countries. 

Results/Expected Results.  This study extends the research performed in 2011 by the Dept. of Commerce in terms of number of countries evaluated (170 vs. 27) and breadth of the criteria considered (27 vs. 6).  The results from the studies are compared and insights gained through use of the decision process. The ultimate result is the creation of the decision support framework for siting SMRs that can further be developed by international organizations such as the IAEA into a complete methodology and toolset for countries to assess the potential benefits from deploying SMRs.