Work limiting health and divorce behavior: A retrospective analysis with SIPP data

In this paper, we consider the role of all work limiting health conditions on divorce behavior but we distinguish between less (exogenous) predictable versus more (endogenous) predictable shocks. We divide the reported health conditions in the 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) into those that appear to arrive randomly conditional on age for married men and women versus those that appear to be more predictable. The six work limiting health conditions that appear to arrive largely exogenously are cancer, carpal tunnel syndrome, deafness or serious trouble hearing, paralysis, thyroid trouble and tumor cyst or growth. How the onset of work limiting conditions then affects divorce is studied across different demographic groups. The primary result of the study is that the onset of health problems that are unpredictable generally does not increase the likelihood of divorce while the divorce behavior is closely related to the onset or evolution of a broader, arguably endogenous set of health conditions.  However, the patterns of response are shown to vary by race and ethnicity. For example, the onset of health conditions that do appear to be statistically related to demographic factors known to correlate with poor health behaviors appear to be associated with a statistically significant increase in the probability of divorce particularly among minority (Black and Hispanic) groups.  The data used in the study are drawn from the SIPP, particularly from the topical module on "work disability history", and the retrospective histories are used to construct a panel over the individuals’ lives.  The primary estimation method is a panel linear probability model with fixed-effects.