This presentation is part of: E30-1 (1886) Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

Price Differences across Colombian Cities: Distance or Guerillas?

Hiranya K. Nath, Ph.D., Department of Economics and Int'l. Business, Sam Houston State University, P.O.Box 2118, Huntsville, TX 77341-2118 and Isabel Ruiz, Ph.D., Economics, Sam Houston State University, 14341 S, Summerchase Circle, Willis, TX 77318.

This paper studies the relative price dynamics across 13 cities in Colombia. Using monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for these cities between 1989 and 2007, this study examines if there exists evidence of convergence in aggregate price indices across Colombian cities. It further investigates some of the plausible explanations for the inter-city differences in the behavior of prices. Preliminary results from the panel unit root tests indicate that convergence in CPI across Colombian cities depends on the choice of the base (numeraire) city. With Barranquilla, Cali, Cucuta, Pasto and Pereira as base cities, relative price levels among cities do not revert to a mean. The estimated half-life ranges between two and half years, with Monteria as the base city, and about six years, with Cucuta as the base city. The results further indicate that distance between cities explains a significant amount of variation in relative prices as well as in relative price changes. This paper also examines if the presence of guerilla rebels creates a barrier to the integration of the markets to the effect that it slows down the price convergence among cities, thus resulting in persistent price differences. While it seems to matter (only at the 10 percent level of significance) for the levels of relative prices across cities, it is not a significant determinant of variability in relative prices over time. Nor does it matter for changes in relative prices or for the month-to-month variations in those changes. The significant positive effect of distance on the variability of relative price changes is, however, a robust result.


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