This presentation is part of: O50-1 (2089) Growth, Inflation, and Exchange Rates in Africa

Why Household Surveys are not an Analysis of Inflation Perception Samples

Jannie Rossouw, MCom;, MBA, Executive Management Department, SA Reserve Bank and Economics Department, University of Pretoria, PO Box 427, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

This paper considers inflation surveys in inflation-targeting countries, and focuses specific attention on the sampling of inflation perceptions of broad cross-sections of populations.  A review of available literature shows that comparatively little has been published on such surveys to date.  This paper contributes to the availability of literature on such surveys.

Expectations of future inflation are informed over time by the policy actions of the authorities and are considered by central banks in their policy decisions.  To this end, in their assessment of expected future inflation central banks in all 23 countries targeting inflation take into consideration surveys sampling opinions of expected inflation; inflation forecasts; the prices of and returns on different classes of traded financial assets; expectations calculated as variables in economic or econometric models; or combinations of these alternatives.  In addition, central banks in a very limited number of inflation targeting countries focus on surveys of the credibility of historic inflation data as a true and accurate reflection of previous price increases in their economies.  The data collected for comparison and analysis in this paper was obtained in the main through a review of monetary policy reports of the central banks of these 23 countries.  The review shows that survey procedures and sampling scope differ considerably between these countries, implying that sampling results can hardly be compared.  In its main finding the paper focuses on the reporting of survey data obtained from a broad cross-section of the population.  It is shown that household surveys are not, as such survey results cannot be presented as the views or opinions of households.