This presentation is part of: Q20-1 (2203) Economics of Natural Resources

Use of NYMEX Crude Oil Contract Prices as an Indicator of Market Pricing Changes

Michael M. Ye, Ph.D.1, John Zyren, Ph.D.2, and Joanne Shore, M.B.A.2. (1) Economics, St. Mary's College of Maryland, 18952 E. Fisher Road, St. Mary's City, MD 20686-3001, (2) Energy Information Administration,, U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independent Ave., SW , Forrestal Building, Washington, DC 20585

This study investigates the relationship between NYMEX light sweet crude oil (WTI) futures short-term and long-term contract prices.  Specifically, the study addresses the changing relationship between the prices of short- and long-term contracts and determines whether the long maturity (tail) contracts can be used as indicators of changes in crude oil market pricing behavior.  Daily data on prices and volumes for NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil futures contracts for the period from 1990 to the present were obtained for one to 84 month expiration dates; maturity dates of 24 months to 84 months are typically referred as the tail end of the futures contracts.  3-D graphical analysis of the futures prices, contract volumes, maturity dates, and time will be used to demonstrate the evolution over time of the shape of futures price curve.  The relationship between the tail end contract and nearby month contract prices will be quantitatively investigated.  This analysis will be used to determine if this information can be utilized to improve short-run crude oil price forecast models and/or provide an early indication of market regime shifts.