This presentation is part of: C10-3 (2184) Statistical and Econometric Methods for Business and Economics - II

Evolution of the Spanish Tourist Sector: A Cointegration Analysis

Roman Minguez Salido, Ph.D., José Mondéjar Jiménez, Ph.D., Juan Antonio Mondéjar Jiménez, Ph.D., and Leticia Meseguer Santamaria, M.B.A. University of Castilla-La Mancha, Avda de los Alfares, 44, Cuenca, 16071, Spain

Abstract

 1. Title: “Evolution of Spanish touristic sector: a cointegration analysis” 
2. Objectives: Spain is one of the most important tourism destination in the World. According to 2006 data from the World Tourism Organization (WTO), Spain places second in the ranking of countries either by international tourism earnings (after the United States) or by international tourism arrivals (after France). As a consequence, the Spanish economy is heavily dependent on tourism. Therefore it seems relevant to analyze the impact of tourism sector at regional level using cointegration analysis.
3. Data/Methods: This project carries out a cointegration analysis considering the regional series of travellers overnight stays, based on statistics for the Spanish regions over the last decade. This kind of analysis appears as a possible solution to non-stationarity problem usually presents in touristic time series.
4. Results/Expected results: We expect to estimate as the long-term stable relations as the short-term cyclical motions between the variables referred to the touristic sector. In this sense, we want to compare the profiles among the Spanish regions making a classification for the different groups.   
5. Conclusion: The touristic sector in Spain shows a wide variability using regional data. Therefore, it seems important trying to gather the different characteristics (stable relationships, seasonality profiles, business cycles, …) using disaggregated data and, afterwards, join the regions with common characteristics. This analysis allows to build a
classification of the Spanish regions taking into account the touristic sector in each one.    
Keywords: Tourism demand, time series, cointegration.