This presentation is part of: O40-2 (2209) Growth and Development

A Macroeconomic Growth Model for Romania, Including Human Capital

Moisa Altar, Ph.D.1, Judita Samuel, Ph.D.2, and Adam Altar-Samuel, MSc2. (1) Doctoral School of Finance and Banking, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, 6, Piata Romana, Bucharest, 010374, Romania, (2) Department of Computer Science for Business Management, Romanian - American University, Bucharest, 1B, Bd. Expozitiei, Bucharest, 012101, Romania

We propose a model of the evolution of the Romanian economy, which, using human capital as the engine of growth, aims at reaching European standards with respect to the quality of life, to the structure of labour force and to external deficit.

The model we build and analyze is a one-sector discrete time growth model on infinite horizon.

The “step” (conventional time-unit) is the average duration of the training period for highly qualified work force.

Taking into account the objective of convergence to the standards of the developed EU countries, the objective function of the model expresses the “distance” between the economy analyzed and “standards” regarding per capita consumption, the structure of labour force and external deficit. Of course, this function has to be minimized.

From the mathematical viewpoint, the dynamic equations and the objective function of the model represent a tracking problem. This type of control problem is related to the linear-quadratic optimization problem (in fact, can be reduced to it) and, therefore, the solution methods are similar. This structure of the model is very convenient from the point of view of numerical solution, since there exist program packages (e.g. within MATLAB) devoted to solving the discrete-time linear-quadratic problem on infinite horizon.

In fact, we perform simulations with the model, using Romanian data. These simulations can highlight the convergence speed of the Romanian economy towards EU standards, under several scenarios regarding the size of investment in human capital.